Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.