This Remarkable Scoring Streak Drives Villa's Improbable Title Charge
It was eight weeks prior that the young forward found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his second to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard query to address. History, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.